{"F": {"ts_code": "601127.SH", "name": "赛力斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "乘用车", "sw3": "电动乘用车", "ind": "乘用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 49.52, "pe_ttm": 66.4059, "pb": 2.3019, "dv_ttm": 2.2399, "total_mv": 8626310.2152, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.6, 3.8, 11.3, 10.4, 26.2, 29.1], "rev_series": [143.0, 167.2, 341.0, 358.4, 1451.8, 1650.5], "np_series": [-17.3, -18.2, -38.3, -24.5, 59.5, 59.6], "roe_series": [-32.3, -27.8, -39.5, -21.5, 50.2, 22.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1601.5, "np_ttm": 13.0, "ocf_ttm": 21.0, "fcf_ttm": -33.2, "fcf_yield": -3.8, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 11.3, "gm_std": 9.8, "gm_stab": 0.13, "gm_chg_2022": 6.8, "npm_median": -11.6, "roe_median": -21.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.7, "fix_assets": 150.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.3, "capex_dep": 2.85, "interest_debt": 58.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 68.3, "debt_mv": 6.8, "payout": 35.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 69.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -7.9, "np_yoy": -158.4, "np_vol": 153.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 17.6, "fwd_pe2": 10.7, "fwd_g1": 278.0, "fwd_g2": 64.0, "peg": 0.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车整车", 88.0], ["汽车零配件及其他", 6.0], ["汽车零部件及其他", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.5, "ret_prev2_year": 78.0, "ret_ytd": -58.8, "ret_pivot": -34.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.8, "ret_60": -26.9, "ret_120": -50.2, "ret_250": -63.3, "mdd_250": -71.3, "vol_250": 35.6, "pos_52w": 29.1}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 21, "hard": 19, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 13.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 66 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 68%,有息负债 58 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 13%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.85 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 66.4 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -63%,最大回撤 -71%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 29%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -27% / -50%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「乘用车」8 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "赛力斯:PE 比行业中位高 39.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}