{"F": {"ts_code": "601126.SH", "name": "四方股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.95, "pe_ttm": 39.3453, "pb": 7.0704, "dv_ttm": 1.7582, "total_mv": 3411567.0225, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.7, 36.0, 32.2, 34.4, 32.3, 30.2], "rev_series": [38.6, 43.0, 50.8, 57.5, 69.5, 81.9], "np_series": [3.4, 4.5, 5.4, 6.3, 7.2, 8.3], "roe_series": [8.5, 11.3, 13.7, 15.2, 16.3, 17.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 86.6, "np_ttm": 8.7, "ocf_ttm": 8.4, "fcf_ttm": 6.3, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 32.3, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 15.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.9, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.07, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 60.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 80.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": 15.1, "rev_yoy": 11.5, "np_yoy": 8.0, "np_vol": 6.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 34.8, "fwd_pe2": 29.7, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 2.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["二次设备", 36.0], ["电力电子产品", 5.0], ["电力电子", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 89.2, "ret_prev2_year": 28.1, "ret_ytd": 39.5, "ret_pivot": 155.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.9, "ret_60": -38.9, "ret_120": -11.0, "ret_250": 133.9, "mdd_250": -57.1, "vol_250": 68.0, "pos_52w": 47.7}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 53, "hard": 8, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.3 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%、固定资产占比 5%、资产负债率 60%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.3%),硬资产占比 5%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.3 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 134%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -39% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "四方股份:PE 比行业中位低 4.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点。"]}}