{"F": {"ts_code": "601121.SH", "name": "宝地矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "冶钢原料", "sw3": "铁矿石", "ind": "冶钢原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230310", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.24, "pe_ttm": 26.5793, "pb": 1.5993, "dv_ttm": 0.9903, "total_mv": 712591.7148, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.1, 51.3, 38.0, 37.1, 43.9, 36.1], "rev_series": [6.9, 9.2, 7.6, 8.7, 12.0, 16.1], "np_series": [1.5, 2.5, 2.0, 1.9, 1.4, 1.4], "roe_series": [9.2, 14.1, 9.9, 7.2, 4.5, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.8, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_ttm": -7.7, "fcf_yield": -10.8, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 38.0, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 27.0, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 30.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.6, "capex_dep": 9.29, "interest_debt": 18.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 43.7, "debt_mv": 25.7, "payout": 46.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 28.4, "np_cagr3": -11.2, "rev_yoy": 23.1, "np_yoy": 207.4, "np_vol": 31.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铁精粉", 38.0], ["金多金属矿粉", 12.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.1, "ret_prev2_year": 1.6, "ret_ytd": -0.9, "ret_pivot": 37.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 19.7, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": 4.8, "mdd_250": -36.2, "vol_250": 41.6, "pos_52w": 81.9}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 58, "hard": 51, "bondness": 29}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 30 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 38.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -10.8%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 81%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 38.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.0%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 9.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.6 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 20% / -14%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「冶钢原料」10 家中位:PE 30.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 34.8% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 54%。", "宝地矿业:PE 比行业中位低 4.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}