{"F": {"ts_code": "601118.SH", "name": "海南橡胶", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "其他种植业", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.03, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.1667, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3008437.7434, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.6, 4.1, 2.2, 2.4, 3.8, 2.5], "rev_series": [157.4, 153.3, 153.7, 334.7, 420.0, 422.4], "np_series": [0.7, 1.5, 0.8, 3.0, 1.0, -1.0], "roe_series": [0.7, 1.6, 0.8, 3.1, 1.1, -1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 370.9, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 14.2, "fcf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 2.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.0, "fix_assets": 39.1, "goodwill_ratio": 4.5, "pb_calc": 3.05, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 167.8, "debt_ebitda": 25.7, "debt_ratio": 70.7, "debt_mv": 55.8, "payout": 37.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 40.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -25.4, "np_yoy": 25.9, "np_vol": 168.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["橡胶产品销售", 31.0], ["橡胶产品", 31.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.4, "ret_prev2_year": 28.3, "ret_ytd": 20.2, "ret_pivot": 42.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 28.3, "ret_60": 26.2, "ret_120": -10.8, "ret_250": 34.4, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 49.8, "pos_52w": 84.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 19, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 71%,有息负债 168 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 2.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.5%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 34%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 26% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "海南橡胶:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 21.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点。"]}}