{"F": {"ts_code": "601113.SH", "name": "华鼎股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "锦纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110509", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.47, "pe_ttm": 39.5348, "pb": 0.9818, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 469890.8134, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.7, 20.5, 18.1, 17.6, 16.5, 12.3], "rev_series": [97.6, 86.5, 65.5, 87.2, 75.2, 47.3], "np_series": [-2.0, -6.1, 4.3, 1.6, 4.9, 2.2], "roe_series": [-4.5, -15.5, 11.4, 4.4, 13.8, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.6, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -4.4, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.0, "fix_assets": 34.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.98, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 8.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 32.1, "debt_mv": 18.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -10.3, "np_cagr3": -19.5, "rev_yoy": 1.2, "np_yoy": -68.5, "np_vol": 156.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.0, "ret_prev2_year": 13.7, "ret_ytd": -25.9, "ret_pivot": 17.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": -11.7, "ret_120": -26.2, "ret_250": -12.8, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 35.0, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 42, "hard": 78, "bondness": 27}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 49%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.5 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -12% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "华鼎股份:PE 比行业中位高 7.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}