{"F": {"ts_code": "601107.SH", "name": "四川成渝", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.79, "pe_ttm": 11.5706, "pb": 1.0486, "dv_ttm": 5.1295, "total_mv": 1770616.74, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.7, 25.8, 18.1, 25.1, 31.9, 34.8], "rev_series": [54.6, 91.0, 99.1, 116.5, 103.6, 87.6], "np_series": [6.7, 18.7, 7.6, 11.9, 14.6, 15.1], "roe_series": [4.4, 11.4, 4.3, 7.1, 8.6, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 95.8, "np_ttm": 15.8, "ocf_ttm": 37.5, "fcf_ttm": -5.7, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": 21.2, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -17.5, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.7, "fix_assets": 11.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.88, "capex_dep": 28.24, "interest_debt": 423.3, "debt_ebitda": 10.6, "debt_ratio": 67.4, "debt_mv": 239.0, "payout": 61.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": 25.7, "rev_yoy": 12.7, "np_yoy": 1.9, "np_vol": 80.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 57.0, "earn_yield": 8.6, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 10.8, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 3.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["高速公路", 26.0], ["公路桥梁管理及养护业", 16.0], ["建造服务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.6, "ret_prev2_year": 30.3, "ret_ytd": 0.1, "ret_pivot": 47.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.7, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -4.5, "ret_250": 8.4, "mdd_250": -22.3, "vol_250": 28.0, "pos_52w": 92.2}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 44, "hard": 3, "bondness": 87}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 62%、股息率 5.1%、营收 3 年复合 -4.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 10.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 21.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 28.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.6 倍 粗算,约 57%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -22%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 5% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "四川成渝:PE 比行业中位低 3.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.3个百分点。"]}}