{"F": {"ts_code": "601100.SH", "name": "恒立液压", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20111028", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 99.03, "pe_ttm": 48.4382, "pb": 7.4128, "dv_ttm": 0.8684, "total_mv": 13278150.363, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.1, 44.0, 40.6, 41.9, 42.8, 41.6], "rev_series": [78.6, 93.1, 82.0, 89.8, 93.9, 109.4], "np_series": [22.5, 26.9, 23.4, 25.0, 25.1, 27.3], "roe_series": [35.0, 32.6, 21.5, 18.5, 16.6, 16.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 126.0, "np_ttm": 27.4, "ocf_ttm": 24.5, "fcf_ttm": 16.9, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 41.9, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 27.9, "roe_median": 18.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.8, "fix_assets": 54.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.41, "capex_dep": 1.35, "interest_debt": 7.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 24.5, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 37.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.1, "np_cagr3": 5.3, "rev_yoy": 32.1, "np_yoy": 0.5, "np_vol": 10.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 27, "fwd_pe": 38.9, "fwd_pe2": 31.1, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 1.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 113.5, "ret_prev2_year": -2.3, "ret_ytd": -9.4, "ret_pivot": 93.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.8, "ret_60": -18.8, "ret_120": -7.6, "ret_250": 19.4, "mdd_250": -25.8, "vol_250": 48.5, "pos_52w": 80.4}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 60, "hard": 36, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.4 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 41.9%、固定资产占比 23%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 41.9%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 1.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.4 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 19%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -19% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "恒立液压:PE 比行业中位高 20.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点。"]}}