{"F": {"ts_code": "601069.SH", "name": "西部黄金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.0, "pe_ttm": 30.8069, "pb": 5.3179, "dv_ttm": 0.52, "total_mv": 2732997.3, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.8, 7.5, 17.2, 5.0, 11.4, 9.9], "rev_series": [55.6, 41.6, 44.1, 44.7, 70.0, 135.7], "np_series": [0.8, 0.7, 1.8, -2.7, 2.9, 4.7], "roe_series": [4.4, 4.1, 5.4, -6.0, 6.4, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 195.8, "np_ttm": 8.6, "ocf_ttm": 24.1, "fcf_ttm": 10.7, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 9.9, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": 9.5, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 29.5, "fix_assets": 39.9, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 5.32, "capex_dep": 4.71, "interest_debt": 58.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.0, "debt_ratio": 62.1, "debt_mv": 21.4, "payout": 23.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 45.5, "np_cagr3": 38.9, "rev_yoy": 119.6, "np_yoy": 315.7, "np_vol": 153.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 22.9, "fwd_pe2": 16.9, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["黄金产品", 45.0], ["电解金属锰及锰锭", 3.0], ["电解金属锰", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 135.9, "ret_prev2_year": -5.1, "ret_ytd": 13.1, "ret_pivot": 169.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.2, "ret_60": 21.0, "ret_120": -14.6, "ret_250": 56.8, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 65.9, "pos_52w": 61.8}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 70, "hard": 47, "bondness": 20}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 316%,PE TTM 30.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 22.9 倍,PEG 0.64。", "自由现金流 10.7 亿(正),次年预期增速 36%(1 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 9.9%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.9%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 4.71 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.8 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 57%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 21% / -15%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "西部黄金:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点。"]}}