{"F": {"ts_code": "601068.SH", "name": "中铝国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "其他专业工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.55, "pe_ttm": 51.8519, "pb": 4.3762, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1359047.69, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.0, 13.6, 12.8, 8.8, 12.2, 13.5], "rev_series": [230.3, 233.5, 237.0, 223.4, 240.0, 230.6], "np_series": [-19.8, -9.5, 1.1, -26.6, 2.2, 2.6], "roe_series": [-19.7, -11.6, 1.5, -36.5, 3.3, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 224.1, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 13.8, "fcf_ttm": 12.3, "fcf_yield": 9.1, "ocf_yield": 10.1, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 3.8, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 25.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 90.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 77.2, "debt_mv": 66.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -0.9, "np_cagr3": 31.8, "rev_yoy": -6.7, "np_yoy": 4.4, "np_vol": 1014.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 47.9, "fwd_pe2": 43.3, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 4.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["EPC工程总承包及施工", 41.0], ["装备制造", 5.0], ["设计咨询", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.0, "ret_prev2_year": -4.5, "ret_ytd": -14.0, "ret_pivot": 18.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -8.1, "ret_120": -29.0, "ret_250": -12.2, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 68.5}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 47, "hard": 10, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 52 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 77%,有息负债 91 亿,经营现金流/市值 10.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.1%(经营现金流/市值 10.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 51.9 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -8% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "中铝国际:PE 比行业中位高 11.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点。"]}}