{"F": {"ts_code": "601065.SH", "name": "江盐集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "纯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.88, "pe_ttm": 30.0747, "pb": 0.9946, "dv_ttm": 1.7442, "total_mv": 442229.9568, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.9, 30.2, 34.0, 37.2, 36.9, 29.1], "rev_series": [13.0, 20.6, 29.4, 28.9, 26.8, 22.6], "np_series": [1.4, 1.8, 4.3, 5.0, 4.6, 2.5], "roe_series": [10.5, 11.4, 22.2, 15.9, 10.9, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.5, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 11.7, "gm_median": 34.0, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 7.1, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.7, "fix_assets": 30.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.99, "capex_dep": 1.13, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 21.5, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 30.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.3, "np_cagr3": -16.2, "rev_yoy": -9.7, "np_yoy": -70.2, "np_vol": 59.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["盐类业务", 14.0], ["盐化工业务", 11.0], ["纯碱", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.0, "ret_prev2_year": -21.6, "ret_ytd": -15.9, "ret_pivot": -12.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": -3.5, "ret_120": -22.7, "ret_250": -19.4, "mdd_250": -28.0, "vol_250": 17.7, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 60, "hard": 86, "bondness": 41}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 31 亿,占总资产 54%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.1%,股息率 1.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 54%)和定价权(毛利率 34.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 11.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.1 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -4% / -23%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "江盐集团:PE 比行业中位低 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点。"]}}