{"F": {"ts_code": "601061.SH", "name": "中信金属", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "贸易Ⅱ", "sw3": "贸易Ⅲ", "ind": "贸易Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.54, "pe_ttm": 14.4472, "pb": 2.2831, "dv_ttm": 1.9064, "total_mv": 5654600.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [2.3, 0.9, 1.2, 2.3, 1.3, 1.5], "rev_series": [769.4, 1128.2, 1191.7, 1250.0, 1301.9, 1418.2], "np_series": [11.4, 18.2, 22.2, 20.6, 22.4, 26.9], "roe_series": [11.8, 17.5, 17.8, 12.4, 10.9, 11.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1650.7, "np_ttm": 39.1, "ocf_ttm": 84.1, "fcf_ttm": 83.3, "fcf_yield": 14.7, "ocf_yield": 14.9, "gm_median": 1.3, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.28, "capex_dep": 46.8, "interest_debt": 77.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 52.8, "debt_mv": 13.6, "payout": 36.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": 6.7, "rev_yoy": 36.5, "np_yoy": 84.5, "np_vol": 22.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 6.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["有色金属产品", 42.0], ["有色金属", 42.0], ["黑色金属产品", 8.0], ["黑色金属", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 106.3, "ret_prev2_year": -4.2, "ret_ytd": -18.6, "ret_pivot": 77.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.1, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": -14.4, "ret_250": 35.1, "mdd_250": -41.5, "vol_250": 48.4, "pos_52w": 68.2}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 30, "hard": 0, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.4 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 1.3%、固定资产占比 0%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 1.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.7%(经营现金流/市值 14.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.3%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 46.80 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.4 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 4% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贸易Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 12.4 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 4.7% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 59%。", "中信金属:PE 比行业中位高 2.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}