{"F": {"ts_code": "601038.SH", "name": "一拖股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "农用机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.59, "pe_ttm": 19.8665, "pb": 1.9943, "dv_ttm": 1.8225, "total_mv": 1639398.4927, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 16.2, 15.7, 15.9, 14.8, 15.1], "rev_series": [74.8, 92.1, 124.6, 115.3, 119.0, 108.2], "np_series": [2.8, 4.4, 6.8, 10.0, 9.2, 8.1], "roe_series": [6.7, 9.0, 12.0, 15.8, 13.2, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 117.8, "np_ttm": 8.3, "ocf_ttm": 15.8, "fcf_ttm": 12.7, "fcf_yield": 7.8, "ocf_yield": 9.6, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 12.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.7, "fix_assets": 25.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 1.22, "interest_debt": 5.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 49.2, "debt_mv": 3.6, "payout": 36.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.6, "np_cagr3": 6.0, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": 1.7, "np_vol": 30.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 18.3, "fwd_pe2": 14.8, "fwd_g1": 9.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["农业机械", 44.0], ["动力机械", 6.0], ["合计特别调整", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.7, "ret_prev2_year": 3.9, "ret_ytd": 4.4, "ret_pivot": -9.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.5, "ret_60": 29.3, "ret_120": -2.9, "ret_250": 9.0, "mdd_250": -34.5, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 93.4}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 46, "hard": 24, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.9 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.8%(经营现金流/市值 9.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.9 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 93%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 29% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "一拖股份:PE 比行业中位低 22.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}