{"F": {"ts_code": "601033.SH", "name": "永兴股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20240118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.63, "pe_ttm": 14.2864, "pb": 1.2219, "dv_ttm": 4.3062, "total_mv": 1316700.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.8, 44.8, 40.9, 45.3, 41.9, 41.0], "rev_series": [null, null, 32.9, 35.4, 37.6, 42.9], "np_series": [null, null, 7.2, 7.3, 8.2, 8.6], "roe_series": [7.6, 11.6, 10.2, 9.3, 9.0, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.7, "np_ttm": 9.2, "ocf_ttm": 18.5, "fcf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_yield": 7.1, "ocf_yield": 14.0, "gm_median": 41.9, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 21.7, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.7, "fix_assets": 120.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 107.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.7, "debt_ratio": 56.2, "debt_mv": 81.5, "payout": 65.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": 6.3, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": 13.2, "np_vol": 35.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.3, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["项目运营", 31.0], ["运营", 31.0], ["合计特别调整", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 0.9, "ret_pivot": 32.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": 7.7, "ret_120": -6.4, "ret_250": -2.1, "mdd_250": -18.3, "vol_250": 20.6, "pos_52w": 89.7}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 60, "hard": 76, "bondness": 74}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 65%、股息率 4.3%、营收 3 年复合 9.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 48%、毛利率 41.9% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(环境治理:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.1%(经营现金流/市值 14.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.3 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -18%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 8% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "永兴股份:PE 比行业中位低 11.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 33.8个百分点。"]}}