{"F": {"ts_code": "601026.SH", "name": "道生天合", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "合成树脂", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20251017", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.78, "pe_ttm": 47.3753, "pb": 3.8295, "dv_ttm": 2.571, "total_mv": 974593.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 8.1, 10.8, 12.3, 11.6, 13.3], "rev_series": [null, null, 34.4, 32.0, 32.4, 35.0], "np_series": [null, null, 1.1, 1.5, 1.5, 2.0], "roe_series": [15.9, 10.2, 9.4, 9.8, 9.0, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.1, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 4.7, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.5, "fix_assets": 8.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.83, "capex_dep": 2.08, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 44.0, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 102.7, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 0.6, "np_cagr3": 22.4, "rev_yoy": 0.8, "np_yoy": 3.6, "np_vol": 28.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -25.3, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.2, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -33.3, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": -54.9, "vol_250": 43.8, "pos_52w": 50.4}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 41, "hard": 31, "bondness": 75}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 47.4 倍、股息率 2.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.08 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.4 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "道生天合:PE 比行业中位高 6.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点。"]}}