{"F": {"ts_code": "601022.SH", "name": "宁波远洋", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.35, "pe_ttm": 19.6124, "pb": 1.8972, "dv_ttm": 1.6168, "total_mv": 1214120.895, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 20.3, 20.8, 16.9, 15.5, 16.1], "rev_series": [30.3, 38.1, 47.7, 44.7, 52.7, 61.1], "np_series": [3.0, 5.2, 6.7, 5.0, 5.5, 6.5], "roe_series": [15.9, 17.7, 15.6, 9.5, 9.9, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 66.2, "np_ttm": 6.2, "ocf_ttm": 13.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 10.8, "gm_median": 16.9, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 11.2, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.3, "fix_assets": 52.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.9, "capex_dep": 3.28, "interest_debt": 12.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 34.1, "debt_mv": 10.3, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": -0.8, "rev_yoy": 17.7, "np_yoy": -9.3, "np_vol": 31.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["运输服务", 41.0], ["综合物流及其他业务", 5.0], ["综合物流及代理服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.5, "ret_prev2_year": -27.5, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 19.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": 10.6, "ret_120": -10.7, "ret_250": -13.0, "mdd_250": -32.5, "vol_250": 33.9, "pos_52w": 74.7}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 49, "hard": 87, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.6 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%、固定资产占比 54%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 10.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 3.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.6 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 11% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "宁波远洋:PE 比行业中位高 2.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点。"]}}