{"F": {"ts_code": "601020.SH", "name": "华钰矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160316", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.61, "pe_ttm": 22.8638, "pb": 4.2078, "dv_ttm": 0.3494, "total_mv": 1853940.1867, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.5, 29.0, 45.7, 42.0, 54.6, 49.0], "rev_series": [23.8, 14.1, 5.6, 8.7, 16.1, 20.7], "np_series": [0.7, 1.5, 1.5, 0.7, 2.5, 8.7], "roe_series": [3.1, 5.8, 5.4, 2.6, 8.1, 22.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.9, "np_ttm": 8.1, "ocf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 45.7, "gm_std": 8.6, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 31.2, "npm_median": 23.6, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 24.4, "fix_assets": 25.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 4.21, "capex_dep": 2.56, "interest_debt": 15.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 39.0, "debt_mv": 8.5, "payout": 12.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 54.2, "np_cagr3": 79.8, "rev_yoy": -9.5, "np_yoy": -32.9, "np_vol": 121.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 114.2, "ret_prev2_year": 23.1, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 115.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.9, "ret_60": 10.5, "ret_120": -28.9, "ret_250": -9.3, "mdd_250": -56.8, "vol_250": 60.1, "pos_52w": 55.7}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 70, "hard": 39, "bondness": 11}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.9 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.7%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.7%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.7%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 31.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 2.56 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.9 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 10% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "华钰矿业:PE 比行业中位高 2.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 34.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点。"]}}