{"F": {"ts_code": "601019.SH", "name": "山东出版", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "教育出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.12, "pe_ttm": 13.0072, "pb": 0.9555, "dv_ttm": 4.073, "total_mv": 1485872.8, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.9, 37.3, 38.9, 37.1, 37.2, 36.5], "rev_series": [97.5, 108.9, 112.2, 121.5, 117.2, 111.8], "np_series": [14.0, 15.3, 16.8, 23.8, 12.7, 11.7], "roe_series": [12.6, 12.8, 13.1, 16.8, 8.5, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 107.7, "np_ttm": 11.4, "ocf_ttm": 8.9, "fcf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 37.2, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 14.0, "roe_median": 12.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 39.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.96, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 27.8, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": -11.3, "rev_yoy": -8.1, "np_yoy": -4.7, "np_vol": 28.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 11.3, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 0.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["教辅", 20.0], ["教材教辅", 20.0], ["教材销售", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.8, "ret_prev2_year": 30.8, "ret_ytd": -15.3, "ret_pivot": -35.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -20.8, "mdd_250": -30.4, "vol_250": 29.4, "pos_52w": 77.5}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 63, "hard": 29, "bondness": 63}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 51%、股息率 4.1%、营收 3 年复合 -0.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.2%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.0 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 7% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "山东出版:PE 比行业中位低 19.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点。"]}}