{"F": {"ts_code": "601018.SH", "name": "宁波港", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.47, "pe_ttm": 13.2017, "pb": 0.827, "dv_ttm": 3.4582, "total_mv": 6750672.7748, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.6, 32.4, 30.8, 29.6, 29.3, 28.9], "rev_series": [212.7, 231.3, 257.0, 259.9, 287.0, 310.2], "np_series": [34.3, 43.3, 42.2, 46.7, 49.0, 51.7], "roe_series": [7.4, 8.2, 6.7, 6.4, 6.4, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 329.8, "np_ttm": 51.1, "ocf_ttm": 56.8, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 29.6, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 2.3, "npm_median": 18.8, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.2, "fix_assets": 661.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 0.83, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 224.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 26.8, "debt_mv": 33.2, "payout": 43.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.5, "np_cagr3": 7.0, "rev_yoy": 12.8, "np_yoy": -2.1, "np_vol": 8.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 13.9, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": -5.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["集装箱装卸及相关业务", 17.0], ["综合物流及其他业务", 16.0], ["贸易销售业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.3, "ret_prev2_year": 11.8, "ret_ytd": -2.0, "ret_pivot": 13.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": -15.8, "ret_250": -3.3, "mdd_250": -25.4, "vol_250": 18.7, "pos_52w": 82.2}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 58, "hard": 85, "bondness": 56}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 43%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 6.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.2 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "宁波港:PE 比行业中位低 3.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点。"]}}