{"F": {"ts_code": "601016.SH", "name": "节能风电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20140929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.34, "pe_ttm": 52.0955, "pb": 1.2181, "dv_ttm": 1.1249, "total_mv": 2185859.8521, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.1, 55.2, 58.0, 53.6, 49.4, 41.3], "rev_series": [26.7, 35.4, 52.4, 51.2, 50.3, 45.0], "np_series": [6.2, 7.7, 16.3, 15.1, 13.3, 6.9], "roe_series": [7.2, 7.5, 12.3, 9.3, 7.8, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.4, "np_ttm": 4.2, "ocf_ttm": 39.2, "fcf_ttm": 8.3, "fcf_yield": 3.8, "ocf_yield": 17.9, "gm_median": 53.6, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 5.9, "npm_median": 27.3, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.4, "fix_assets": 303.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 1.49, "interest_debt": 239.9, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 58.5, "debt_mv": 109.8, "payout": 35.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.0, "np_cagr3": -25.1, "rev_yoy": -10.5, "np_yoy": -42.2, "np_vol": 30.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 33.4, "fwd_pe2": 27.1, "fwd_g1": 56.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 1.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电力销售收入", 33.0], ["电力", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.6, "ret_prev2_year": 9.1, "ret_ytd": 13.3, "ret_pivot": 29.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.9, "ret_60": -16.2, "ret_120": -24.4, "ret_250": 8.7, "mdd_250": -42.1, "vol_250": 50.4, "pos_52w": 59.4}, "S": {"duration": 73, "pricing": 69, "hard": 100, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 52.1 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 53.6%、固定资产占比 66%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 66%、毛利率 53.6% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.8%(经营现金流/市值 17.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 53.6%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 1.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 52.1 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -16% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "节能风电:PE 比行业中位高 24.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}