{"F": {"ts_code": "601015.SH", "name": "陕西黑猫", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "焦炭Ⅱ", "sw3": "焦炭Ⅲ", "ind": "焦炭Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.67, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5755, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 749596.6192, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.1, 13.4, 4.1, 2.6, -2.4, -4.7], "rev_series": [90.6, 189.0, 232.0, 185.9, 145.8, 101.3], "np_series": [2.8, 15.3, 2.8, -5.1, -11.6, -11.8], "roe_series": [4.9, 21.5, 3.2, -6.3, -16.5, -20.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 99.5, "np_ttm": -10.8, "ocf_ttm": -4.6, "fcf_ttm": -10.3, "fcf_yield": -13.7, "ocf_yield": -6.2, "gm_median": 2.6, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": -1.42, "gm_chg_2022": -6.0, "npm_median": -3.0, "roe_median": -6.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 63.1, "fix_assets": 112.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.58, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 57.2, "debt_ebitda": 163.2, "debt_ratio": 64.9, "debt_mv": 76.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -24.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.5, "np_yoy": 20.8, "np_vol": 330.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["焦炭", 34.0], ["液化气(天然气)", 5.0], ["液化天然气", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.4, "ret_prev2_year": -25.4, "ret_ytd": 1.4, "ret_pivot": 31.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.9, "ret_60": 7.3, "ret_120": -30.0, "ret_250": -0.3, "mdd_250": -49.0, "vol_250": 58.1, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -10.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 57 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 63%、毛利率 2.6% 两条都占,但所在行业(煤炭)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.7%(经营现金流/市值 -6.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.6%,稳定度 -142%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 63%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 7% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「焦炭Ⅱ」7 家中位:PE 68.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 2.6% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 33%。", "陕西黑猫:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点。"]}}