{"F": {"ts_code": "601011.SH", "name": "宝泰隆", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "焦炭Ⅱ", "sw3": "焦炭Ⅲ", "ind": "焦炭Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110309", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.9, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0382, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 555542.705, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.5, 16.9, 14.8, 7.9, -10.7, 6.2], "rev_series": [26.7, 35.8, 37.7, 37.3, 12.9, 6.9], "np_series": [0.5, 1.5, 1.5, -15.4, -4.6, -3.2], "roe_series": [0.9, 2.4, 2.2, -22.1, -7.8, -5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.5, "np_ttm": -5.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 7.9, "gm_std": 9.7, "gm_stab": -0.23, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": -41.7, "roe_median": -5.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 70.9, "fix_assets": 82.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 1.45, "interest_debt": 18.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 51.3, "debt_mv": 32.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -43.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.9, "np_yoy": -219.1, "np_vol": 477.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["原煤", 46.0], ["供热和电力", 22.0], ["精煤", 21.0], ["沫煤", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.0, "ret_prev2_year": -14.0, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 75.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": 0.0, "mdd_250": -48.2, "vol_250": 57.5, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 51%,有息负债 18 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 71%、毛利率 7.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(煤炭)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%,稳定度 -23%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 71%,资本开支/折旧 1.45 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 2% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「焦炭Ⅱ」7 家中位:PE 68.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 2.6% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 33%。", "宝泰隆:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.5个百分点。"]}}