{"F": {"ts_code": "601006.SH", "name": "大秦铁路", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "铁路运输", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060801", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.83, "pe_ttm": 15.8833, "pb": 0.5827, "dv_ttm": 4.6136, "total_mv": 9593777.2224, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 21.8, 20.0, 20.7, 15.3, 8.6], "rev_series": [723.2, 786.8, 757.6, 810.2, 746.3, 776.4], "np_series": [109.0, 121.8, 112.0, 119.3, 90.4, 59.0], "roe_series": [9.3, 9.9, 8.9, 9.0, 6.2, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 799.6, "np_ttm": 60.4, "ocf_ttm": 127.6, "fcf_ttm": -154.7, "fcf_yield": -16.1, "ocf_yield": 13.3, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.7, "fix_assets": 894.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.58, "capex_dep": 5.37, "interest_debt": 137.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 15.9, "debt_mv": 14.3, "payout": 78.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": -19.2, "rev_yoy": 6.2, "np_yoy": 3.4, "np_vol": 18.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 13.8, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["货运收入", 35.0], ["货运", 35.0], ["其他收入", 8.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.8, "ret_prev2_year": 1.3, "ret_ytd": -3.8, "ret_pivot": -14.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": -1.2, "ret_120": -7.1, "ret_250": -22.8, "mdd_250": -28.5, "vol_250": 15.1, "pos_52w": 77.4}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 44, "hard": 67, "bondness": 78}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 78%、股息率 4.6%、营收 3 年复合 0.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.1%(经营现金流/市值 13.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 5.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.9 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 15%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -1% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "大秦铁路:PE 比行业中位高 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.7个百分点。"]}}