{"F": {"ts_code": "601005.SH", "name": "重庆钢铁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.2, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.782, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1153120.752, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.5, 9.8, -0.1, -1.7, -5.0, 0.8], "rev_series": [244.9, 398.5, 365.6, 393.2, 272.4, 240.0], "np_series": [6.4, 22.7, -10.2, -14.9, -32.0, -27.2], "roe_series": [3.2, 10.7, -4.7, -7.3, -17.5, -17.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 227.4, "np_ttm": -27.7, "ocf_ttm": 13.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 11.5, "gm_median": -0.1, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 50.25, "gm_chg_2022": -7.6, "npm_median": -3.8, "roe_median": -7.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.2, "fix_assets": 230.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.78, "capex_dep": 0.56, "interest_debt": 56.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 55.1, "debt_mv": 48.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -13.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -9.6, "np_yoy": -36.5, "np_vol": 142.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["钢材商品销售", 32.0], ["钢材商品销售：热卷", 20.0], ["钢材商品销售：板材", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.4, "ret_prev2_year": 3.6, "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_pivot": 13.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -2.4, "ret_120": -24.5, "ret_250": -21.1, "mdd_250": -30.5, "vol_250": 25.9, "pos_52w": 73.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 70%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -0.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 70%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.1%,稳定度 5025%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 11.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.1%,稳定度 5025%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 0.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -2% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "重庆钢铁:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点。"]}}