{"F": {"ts_code": "601003.SH", "name": "柳钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.77, "pe_ttm": 26.1867, "pb": 1.0814, "dv_ttm": 2.6525, "total_mv": 993101.6186, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.8, 7.4, -0.9, 2.1, 3.7, 5.7], "rev_series": [546.9, 922.5, 807.3, 796.6, 701.3, 688.9], "np_series": [17.2, 14.6, -23.4, -10.1, -4.3, 6.7], "roe_series": [14.9, 12.0, -20.9, -10.9, -5.0, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 671.7, "np_ttm": 3.8, "ocf_ttm": 43.2, "fcf_ttm": 35.1, "fcf_yield": 35.4, "ocf_yield": 43.5, "gm_median": 3.7, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.22, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": -0.9, "roe_median": -5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.8, "fix_assets": 467.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 0.28, "interest_debt": 261.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 63.0, "debt_mv": 263.0, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.0, "np_yoy": -79.3, "np_vol": 166.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["钢材销售", 45.0], ["其他销售", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.3, "ret_prev2_year": -13.4, "ret_ytd": -23.5, "ret_pivot": 55.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.5, "ret_60": 6.2, "ret_120": -28.3, "ret_250": -36.0, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 38.4, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 13, "hard": 100, "bondness": 64}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 76%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 76%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.7%,稳定度 22%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 35.4%(经营现金流/市值 43.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.7%,稳定度 22%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 76%,资本开支/折旧 0.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.2 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 6% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "柳钢股份:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.6个百分点。"]}}