{"F": {"ts_code": "601000.SH", "name": "唐山港", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100705", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.69, "pe_ttm": 13.0975, "pb": 1.3035, "dv_ttm": 4.2644, "total_mv": 2779260.5134, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 40.3, 38.7, 45.7, 46.7, 48.6], "rev_series": [78.4, 60.7, 56.2, 58.4, 57.2, 56.8], "np_series": [18.4, 20.9, 16.9, 19.2, 19.8, 20.0], "roe_series": [10.4, 11.3, 9.0, 9.8, 9.7, 9.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.8, "np_ttm": 21.2, "ocf_ttm": 21.1, "fcf_ttm": 15.7, "fcf_yield": 5.6, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 45.7, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 8.5, "npm_median": 35.4, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.7, "fix_assets": 78.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 0.82, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 8.9, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 59.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.4, "np_cagr3": 5.8, "rev_yoy": 15.2, "np_yoy": 14.0, "np_vol": 12.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": -2.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 3.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["散杂货板块", 31.0], ["散杂货业务", 31.0], ["物流及服务板块", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.5, "ret_prev2_year": 48.6, "ret_ytd": 28.8, "ret_pivot": 5.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": 11.7, "ret_120": 12.5, "ret_250": 21.8, "mdd_250": -13.2, "vol_250": 21.7, "pos_52w": 94.7}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 66, "hard": 49, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 60%、股息率 4.3%、营收 3 年复合 0.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 31%、毛利率 45.7% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(航运港口:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.6%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.82 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -13%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 12% / 12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "唐山港:PE 比行业中位低 4.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.4个百分点。"]}}