{"F": {"ts_code": "600999.SH", "name": "招商证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091117", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.54, "pe_ttm": 9.0642, "pb": 1.2818, "dv_ttm": 3.0636, "total_mv": 16123360.6872, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [242.8, 294.3, 192.2, 198.2, 208.9, 249.7], "np_series": [94.9, 116.5, 80.7, 87.6, 103.9, 123.5], "roe_series": [10.0, 10.7, 7.1, 7.4, 8.2, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 363.5, "np_ttm": 177.9, "ocf_ttm": 365.9, "fcf_ttm": 357.5, "fcf_yield": 22.2, "ocf_yield": 22.7, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 44.2, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.2, "fix_assets": 14.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.11, "capex_dep": 1.54, "interest_debt": 1931.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 83.4, "debt_mv": 119.8, "payout": 42.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.1, "np_cagr3": 15.2, "rev_yoy": 108.2, "np_yoy": 104.9, "np_vol": 19.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 45.0, "earn_yield": 11.0, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 8.0, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": -10.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 23.0], ["证券投资业务", 12.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入合计", 10.0], ["证券经纪业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.1, "ret_prev2_year": 47.6, "ret_ytd": 14.5, "ret_pivot": 31.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": 10.4, "ret_120": 19.4, "ret_250": -4.0, "mdd_250": -23.4, "vol_250": 27.2, "pos_52w": 82.4}, "S": {"duration": 20, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 47}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["招商证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 8.2%,PB 1.28倍,股息率 3.1%,分红率 42%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 11.0%(1/PE)与股息率 3.1% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.1 倍 粗算,约 45%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 10% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "招商证券:PE 比行业中位低 6.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}