{"F": {"ts_code": "600998.SH", "name": "九州通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医药商业", "sw3": "医药流通", "ind": "医药商业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.05, "pe_ttm": 12.6697, "pb": 0.9437, "dv_ttm": 3.9164, "total_mv": 2546447.451, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.0, 8.0, 7.8, 8.1, 7.8, 7.8], "rev_series": [1108.6, 1224.1, 1404.2, 1501.4, 1518.1, 1613.9], "np_series": [30.8, 24.5, 20.8, 21.7, 25.1, 22.5], "roe_series": [15.2, 10.8, 8.7, 8.9, 9.8, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1675.6, "np_ttm": 20.1, "ocf_ttm": 34.8, "fcf_ttm": 22.7, "fcf_yield": 8.9, "ocf_yield": 13.7, "gm_median": 7.8, "gm_std": 0.1, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.3, "fix_assets": 87.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 0.89, "capex_dep": 2.18, "interest_debt": 196.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.3, "debt_ratio": 69.2, "debt_mv": 77.3, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.7, "np_cagr3": 2.6, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": -16.9, "np_vol": 13.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.9, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 11.4, "fwd_pe2": 10.3, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["分销分部", 48.0], ["工业分部", 1.0], ["零售分部", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.2, "ret_prev2_year": -2.5, "ret_ytd": 2.6, "ret_pivot": 20.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -1.2, "ret_250": -3.6, "mdd_250": -17.0, "vol_250": 21.1, "pos_52w": 93.5}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 45, "hard": 12, "bondness": 68}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 46%、股息率 3.9%、营收 3 年复合 4.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.3 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.9%(经营现金流/市值 13.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.18 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.7 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -17%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 7% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医药商业」32 家中位:PE 22.5 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 13.4% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 38%。", "九州通:PE 比行业中位低 9.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}