{"F": {"ts_code": "600997.SH", "name": "开滦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "焦煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.51, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.6487, "dv_ttm": 0.363, "total_mv": 874877.7449, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.7, 20.8, 16.3, 14.1, 12.5, 9.5], "rev_series": [181.8, 223.5, 260.0, 228.4, 211.7, 173.9], "np_series": [10.8, 18.2, 18.5, 10.9, 8.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [9.2, 14.2, 13.4, 7.7, 5.7, -0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 180.3, "np_ttm": -5.3, "ocf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_ttm": -8.8, "fcf_yield": -10.1, "ocf_yield": -2.6, "gm_median": 14.1, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 50.6, "fix_assets": 129.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.65, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 50.1, "debt_ebitda": 15.3, "debt_ratio": 43.7, "debt_mv": 57.3, "payout": 50.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.2, "np_yoy": -138.3, "np_vol": 55.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 27.5, "fwd_pe2": 16.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 65.0, "peg": 0.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["冶金焦炭", 18.0], ["冶金焦", 18.0], ["其他煤化工产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.6, "ret_prev2_year": -7.5, "ret_ytd": -3.8, "ret_pivot": -5.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -19.6, "ret_250": -14.2, "mdd_250": -36.3, "vol_250": 33.5, "pos_52w": 73.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 81, "bondness": 55}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 44%,有息负债 50 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 51%、毛利率 14.1% 两条都占,但所在行业(煤炭)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.1%(经营现金流/市值 -2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.1%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 5% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "开滦股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点。"]}}