{"F": {"ts_code": "600995.SH", "name": "南网储能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040615", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.48, "pe_ttm": 20.2648, "pb": 1.7025, "dv_ttm": 1.3547, "total_mv": 3988615.2384, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.2, 11.5, 48.3, 45.9, 47.2, 50.8], "rev_series": [18.8, 21.6, 82.6, 56.3, 61.7, 73.8], "np_series": [1.1, 0.2, 16.6, 10.1, 11.3, 16.9], "roe_series": [5.1, 0.7, 15.1, 5.0, 5.3, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 82.0, "np_ttm": 19.7, "ocf_ttm": 48.8, "fcf_ttm": -46.9, "fcf_yield": -11.8, "ocf_yield": 12.2, "gm_median": 47.2, "gm_std": 14.7, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 36.1, "npm_median": 23.2, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 78.9, "fix_assets": 502.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 5.42, "interest_debt": 292.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 53.8, "debt_mv": 73.3, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.7, "np_cagr3": 0.5, "rev_yoy": 24.8, "np_yoy": 33.6, "np_vol": 49.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 4.9, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 21.2, "fwd_pe2": 19.5, "fwd_g1": -4.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 2.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["抽水蓄能", 64.0], ["调峰水电", 24.0], ["电池储能", 5.0], ["新型储能", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.0, "ret_prev2_year": 4.2, "ret_ytd": 0.2, "ret_pivot": 45.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.3, "ret_60": -5.1, "ret_120": -19.2, "ret_250": 22.2, "mdd_250": -28.5, "vol_250": 37.8, "pos_52w": 76.4}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 59, "hard": 100, "bondness": 54}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.3 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 47.2%、固定资产占比 79%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 79%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 47.2%,稳定度 69%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.8%(经营现金流/市值 12.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.2%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 36.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 79%,资本开支/折旧 5.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.3 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -5% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "南网储能:PE 比行业中位低 7.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.2个百分点。"]}}