{"F": {"ts_code": "600989.SH", "name": "宝丰能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "煤化工", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190516", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.4, "pe_ttm": 11.649, "pb": 3.2413, "dv_ttm": 3.4142, "total_mv": 17893398.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.1, 42.2, 32.9, 30.4, 33.1, 35.9], "rev_series": [159.3, 233.0, 284.3, 291.4, 329.8, 480.4], "np_series": [46.2, 70.7, 63.0, 56.5, 63.4, 113.5], "roe_series": [18.8, 25.0, 19.5, 15.6, 15.5, 24.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 554.2, "np_ttm": 153.6, "ocf_ttm": 208.3, "fcf_ttm": 123.3, "fcf_yield": 6.9, "ocf_yield": 11.6, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -12.2, "npm_median": 22.2, "roe_median": 19.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.8, "fix_assets": 719.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 3.24, "capex_dep": 2.69, "interest_debt": 272.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 41.8, "debt_mv": 15.2, "payout": 52.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.1, "np_cagr3": 21.7, "rev_yoy": 32.3, "np_yoy": 70.1, "np_vol": 35.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 57.0, "earn_yield": 8.6, "consensus_n": 34, "fwd_pe": 10.9, "fwd_pe2": 10.3, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["烯烃产品", 44.0], ["烯烃", 44.0], ["焦化产品", 8.0], ["精细化工产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.7, "ret_prev2_year": 18.1, "ret_ytd": 29.9, "ret_pivot": 85.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": 8.3, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": 57.6, "mdd_250": -41.9, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 72.1}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 51, "hard": 100, "bondness": 44}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 720 亿,占总资产 76%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.2 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 6.9%,股息率 3.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 57%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 76%)和定价权(毛利率 33.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 76%,资本开支/折旧 2.69 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.6 倍 粗算,约 57%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 58%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 8% / -28%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "宝丰能源:PE 比行业中位低 24.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.4个百分点。"]}}