{"F": {"ts_code": "600988.SH", "name": "赤峰黄金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "贵金属", "sw3": "黄金", "ind": "贵金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040414", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.69, "pe_ttm": 23.4184, "pb": 6.061, "dv_ttm": 0.7004, "total_mv": 8682978.7728, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.8, 33.3, 28.6, 32.6, 43.8, 52.5], "rev_series": [45.6, 37.8, 62.7, 72.2, 90.3, 126.4], "np_series": [7.8, 5.8, 4.5, 8.0, 17.6, 30.8], "roe_series": [22.3, 13.4, 9.2, 14.2, 25.1, 28.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 143.8, "np_ttm": 37.1, "ocf_ttm": 58.2, "fcf_ttm": 30.6, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 6.7, "gm_median": 33.3, "gm_std": 8.7, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 16.2, "roe_median": 14.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 33.8, "fix_assets": 85.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 6.06, "capex_dep": 3.1, "interest_debt": 8.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 29.6, "debt_mv": 0.9, "payout": 15.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 26.3, "np_cagr3": 89.8, "rev_yoy": 33.1, "np_yoy": 56.5, "np_vol": 58.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 17.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.5, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["自产金", 44.0], ["电解铜", 3.0], ["其他(电子产品拆解)", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 104.4, "ret_prev2_year": 12.2, "ret_ytd": 47.8, "ret_pivot": 152.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.6, "ret_60": 61.7, "ret_120": 12.6, "ret_250": 82.9, "mdd_250": -45.9, "vol_250": 63.7, "pos_52w": 92.4}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 70, "hard": 54, "bondness": 10}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 85 亿,占总资产 34%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:黄金 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 3.5%,股息率 0.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 79%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 34%)和定价权(商品价格)。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.3%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 3.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.4 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 83%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 62% / 13%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「贵金属」11 家中位:PE 30.8 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 13.3% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 32%。", "赤峰黄金:PE 比行业中位低 7.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点。"]}}