{"F": {"ts_code": "600985.SH", "name": "淮北矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "焦煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040428", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.04, "pe_ttm": 26.7835, "pb": 1.0868, "dv_ttm": 1.4671, "total_mv": 4589312.8248, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.2, 19.8, 23.1, 18.9, 18.3, 18.4], "rev_series": [522.8, 649.6, 690.6, 733.9, 657.4, 411.2], "np_series": [34.7, 47.8, 70.1, 62.2, 48.6, 15.1], "roe_series": [17.2, 19.7, 23.1, 17.6, 12.2, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 419.0, "np_ttm": 17.1, "ocf_ttm": 56.9, "fcf_ttm": -19.7, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": 12.4, "gm_median": 18.9, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 5.0, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 17.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 52.7, "fix_assets": 483.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.09, "capex_dep": 2.08, "interest_debt": 158.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 49.4, "debt_mv": 34.4, "payout": 40.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -15.9, "np_cagr3": -40.1, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": 20.1, "np_vol": 41.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 14.2, "fwd_pe2": 11.4, "fwd_g1": 88.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["商品贸易", 15.0], ["煤炭产品", 14.0], ["煤化工产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.9, "ret_prev2_year": -10.7, "ret_ytd": 56.9, "ret_pivot": 28.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.1, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": 22.2, "ret_250": 30.6, "mdd_250": -20.4, "vol_250": 41.6, "pos_52w": 90.9}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 70, "hard": 84, "bondness": 51}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 483 亿,占总资产 53%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:焦煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -4.3%,股息率 1.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 81%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 53%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 12.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 2.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 31%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 4% / 22%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "淮北矿业:PE 比行业中位高 1.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点。"]}}