{"F": {"ts_code": "600984.SH", "name": "建设机械", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.71, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9823, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 466363.2869, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.0, 35.0, 22.5, 9.4, -2.5, -11.6], "rev_series": [40.0, 47.2, 38.9, 32.3, 27.3, 25.4], "np_series": [5.5, 3.7, -0.4, -7.4, -9.9, -22.0], "roe_series": [11.5, 6.3, -0.7, -13.2, -20.7, -59.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.2, "np_ttm": -22.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_yield": 7.8, "ocf_yield": 11.0, "gm_median": 9.4, "gm_std": 16.7, "gm_stab": -0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -15.5, "npm_median": -23.1, "roe_median": -13.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.4, "fix_assets": 69.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.82, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 65.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 80.5, "debt_mv": 139.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -13.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.1, "np_yoy": -11.7, "np_vol": 599.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["建筑及施工机械租赁", 33.0], ["筑路设备及配件", 5.0], ["筑路设备及起重机械销售", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.2, "ret_prev2_year": -14.9, "ret_ytd": -9.3, "ret_pivot": 67.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.1, "ret_60": -10.2, "ret_120": -16.1, "ret_250": 1.6, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 54.1, "pos_52w": 71.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 8, "hard": 82, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.5 个百分点;资产负债率 80%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.4%,稳定度 -78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.8%(经营现金流/市值 11.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.4%,稳定度 -78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -10% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "建设机械:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 34.2个百分点。"]}}