{"F": {"ts_code": "600982.SH", "name": "宁波能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "热力服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.88, "pe_ttm": 14.9021, "pb": 1.2254, "dv_ttm": 3.4836, "total_mv": 545402.22, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.1, 8.8, 6.8, 11.0, 13.7, 19.4], "rev_series": [44.1, 69.1, 83.5, 53.9, 42.4, 37.9], "np_series": [2.5, 4.7, 3.6, 4.1, 2.8, 3.5], "roe_series": [7.4, 12.9, 9.3, 9.9, 6.7, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.0, "np_ttm": 3.7, "ocf_ttm": 6.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 12.4, "gm_median": 11.0, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.8, "fix_assets": 54.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 1.07, "interest_debt": 86.9, "debt_ebitda": 9.6, "debt_ratio": 63.2, "debt_mv": 159.3, "payout": 57.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -23.2, "np_cagr3": -1.5, "rev_yoy": 11.3, "np_yoy": 12.9, "np_vol": 40.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["蒸汽销售", 21.0], ["电力销售", 15.0], ["煤炭销售", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.7, "ret_prev2_year": 5.0, "ret_ytd": 17.0, "ret_pivot": 62.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": -12.2, "ret_120": -2.4, "ret_250": 6.8, "mdd_250": -37.0, "vol_250": 49.1, "pos_52w": 68.0}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 32, "hard": 49, "bondness": 76}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 57%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 -23.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 12.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.0%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.9 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -12% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "宁波能源:PE 比行业中位低 12.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 29.9个百分点。"]}}