{"F": {"ts_code": "600977.SH", "name": "中国电影", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "影视院线", "sw3": "影视动漫制作", "ind": "影视院线", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160809", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.69, "pe_ttm": 202.745, "pb": 2.1679, "dv_ttm": 0.2522, "total_mv": 2369223.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-1.3, 17.5, 17.9, 24.5, 20.0, 14.8], "rev_series": [29.5, 58.2, 29.2, 53.3, 45.7, 48.3], "np_series": [-5.6, 2.4, -2.1, 2.6, 1.4, 1.2], "roe_series": [-4.9, 2.2, -2.0, 2.4, 1.3, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.3, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 17.9, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 19.1, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.7, "fix_assets": 14.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 1.11, "interest_debt": 25.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.9, "debt_ratio": 38.4, "debt_mv": 10.8, "payout": 51.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.9, "np_yoy": 0.3, "np_vol": 145.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 91.6, "fwd_pe2": 47.5, "fwd_g1": 121.0, "fwd_g2": 93.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 28.0], ["发行分部", 12.0], ["发行收入", 12.0], ["发行业务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.0, "ret_prev2_year": -4.6, "ret_ytd": -19.1, "ret_pivot": 28.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": -4.1, "ret_120": -5.4, "ret_250": -2.4, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 57.1, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 49, "hard": 12, "bondness": 36}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 202.7 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 91.6 倍,次年 47.5 倍,PEG 0.98。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 19.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.11 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 202.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -4% / -5%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「影视院线」19 家中位:PE 84.8 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 22.8% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 40%。", "中国电影:PE 比行业中位高 117.9倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点。"]}}