{"F": {"ts_code": "600973.SH", "name": "宝胜股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040802", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.07, "pe_ttm": 394.6382, "pb": 2.3229, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 832419.2834, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.8, 6.4, 5.1, 5.3, 4.4, 4.2], "rev_series": [341.4, 428.8, 414.8, 438.0, 463.6, 479.6], "np_series": [2.1, -7.6, 0.6, 0.3, -3.0, -0.4], "roe_series": [5.1, -18.9, 1.8, 0.8, -8.5, -1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 570.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 5.6, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 5.1, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": -0.0, "roe_median": -1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 36.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.32, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 130.2, "debt_ebitda": 14.2, "debt_ratio": 82.0, "debt_mv": 156.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 5.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 36.3, "np_yoy": 97.7, "np_vol": 442.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.9, "ret_prev2_year": 33.8, "ret_ytd": -16.8, "ret_pivot": 78.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.3, "ret_60": -4.4, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": 6.3, "mdd_250": -40.7, "vol_250": 47.5, "pos_52w": 66.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 25, "bondness": 30}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 395 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 82%,有息负债 130 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.6%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 394.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -4% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "宝胜股份:PE 比行业中位高 351.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}