{"F": {"ts_code": "600971.SH", "name": "恒源煤电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040817", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.94, "pe_ttm": 108.6926, "pb": 0.9139, "dv_ttm": 2.7762, "total_mv": 1072804.3806, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 42.1, 50.8, 47.0, 37.8, 22.7], "rev_series": [52.1, 67.5, 83.9, 77.9, 69.7, 55.3], "np_series": [7.7, 13.9, 25.1, 20.4, 10.7, -1.9], "roe_series": [8.6, 14.5, 23.1, 16.7, 8.6, -1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 66.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 22.2, "fcf_ttm": 16.0, "fcf_yield": 15.0, "ocf_yield": 20.7, "gm_median": 42.1, "gm_std": 9.7, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 13.1, "npm_median": 20.5, "roe_median": 14.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 48.5, "fix_assets": 122.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.91, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 50.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 51.4, "debt_mv": 47.0, "payout": 51.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 44.8, "np_yoy": 224.8, "np_vol": 76.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 20.1, "fwd_pe2": 15.3, "fwd_g1": 441.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -31.1, "ret_prev2_year": -9.3, "ret_ytd": 49.2, "ret_pivot": 9.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.6, "ret_60": 15.2, "ret_120": 16.1, "ret_250": 32.2, "mdd_250": -18.6, "vol_250": 33.3, "pos_52w": 97.3}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 70, "hard": 78, "bondness": 68}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 122 亿,占总资产 48%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 15.0%,股息率 2.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 95%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 48%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.0%(经营现金流/市值 20.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.1%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 108.7 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 32%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 97%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 15% / 16%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "恒源煤电:PE 比行业中位高 83.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点。"]}}