{"F": {"ts_code": "600969.SH", "name": "郴电国际", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.18, "pe_ttm": 36.7945, "pb": 1.036, "dv_ttm": 1.2377, "total_mv": 376711.409, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.8, 14.8, 9.8, 7.5, 12.8, 9.4], "rev_series": [30.5, 34.1, 40.1, 39.2, 42.9, 41.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, 0.5, -0.6, -0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [0.9, 1.3, 1.3, -1.7, -1.0, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.0, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 14.9, "fcf_ttm": 11.2, "fcf_yield": 29.6, "ocf_yield": 39.5, "gm_median": 9.8, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 67.8, "fix_assets": 95.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 62.0, "debt_ebitda": 7.0, "debt_ratio": 71.4, "debt_mv": 164.6, "payout": 61.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.1, "np_cagr3": 15.9, "rev_yoy": 2.5, "np_yoy": 100.5, "np_vol": 169.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力销售", 43.0], ["电力生产与销售业务", 43.0], ["气体生产与销售业务", 3.0], ["工业气体", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.1, "ret_ytd": 0.8, "ret_pivot": 97.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 22.8, "ret_60": 6.6, "ret_120": -3.9, "ret_250": 37.9, "mdd_250": -40.4, "vol_250": 46.7, "pos_52w": 83.5}, "S": {"duration": 60, "pricing": 34, "hard": 100, "bondness": 63}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 37 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 71%,有息负债 62 亿,经营现金流/市值 39.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 68%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 73%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 29.6%(经营现金流/市值 39.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 68%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.8 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 38%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 23% / 7% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "郴电国际:PE 比行业中位高 9.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点。"]}}