{"F": {"ts_code": "600968.SH", "name": "海油发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油田服务", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.95, "pe_ttm": 10.2351, "pb": 1.3466, "dv_ttm": 3.7215, "total_mv": 4015216.159, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.1, 13.2, 12.5, 13.5, 14.6, 16.1], "rev_series": [332.1, 387.4, 477.8, 493.1, 525.2, 503.6], "np_series": [15.2, 12.8, 24.2, 30.8, 36.6, 38.8], "roe_series": [8.0, 6.4, 11.3, 13.1, 14.1, 13.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 508.5, "np_ttm": 39.2, "ocf_ttm": 30.6, "fcf_ttm": 9.5, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 13.5, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 25.2, "fix_assets": 124.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 1.26, "interest_debt": 37.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 38.7, "debt_mv": 9.3, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": 17.1, "rev_yoy": 2.1, "np_yoy": 2.1, "np_vol": 34.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 51.0, "earn_yield": 9.8, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 9.2, "fwd_pe2": 8.4, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["能源物流服务", 24.0], ["能源技术服务", 17.0], ["安全环保与节能", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.4, "ret_prev2_year": 62.2, "ret_ytd": 7.0, "ret_pivot": 9.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": 7.5, "ret_120": -15.7, "ret_250": 0.7, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 35.7, "pos_52w": 72.0}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 70, "hard": 40, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 10.2 倍、股息率 3.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 13.5%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.26 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.2 倍 粗算,约 51%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 8% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "海油发展:PE 比行业中位低 51.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}