{"F": {"ts_code": "600967.SH", "name": "内蒙一机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.66, "pe_ttm": 107.2642, "pb": 1.9396, "dv_ttm": 0.7247, "total_mv": 2324651.5602, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.8, 10.4, 11.4, 16.1, 12.5, 12.2], "rev_series": [132.3, 138.2, 143.5, 100.1, 97.9, 100.2], "np_series": [6.6, 7.5, 8.2, 8.5, 5.0, 3.3], "roe_series": [6.9, 7.4, 7.7, 7.6, 4.3, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 95.3, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 12.2, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.9, "fix_assets": 22.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.94, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 35.2, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 50.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.3, "np_cagr3": -25.9, "rev_yoy": -8.6, "np_yoy": -40.7, "np_vol": 23.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 53.6, "fwd_pe2": 44.1, "fwd_g1": 100.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 2.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 100.5, "ret_prev2_year": 7.3, "ret_ytd": -18.2, "ret_pivot": 115.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.3, "ret_60": 18.9, "ret_120": -13.5, "ret_250": -46.9, "mdd_250": -60.3, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 53.3}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 44, "hard": 19, "bondness": 42}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 107.3 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 53.6 倍,次年 44.1 倍,PEG 2.44。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.2%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 107.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -47%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 19% / -14%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "内蒙一机:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点。"]}}