{"F": {"ts_code": "600966.SH", "name": "博汇纸业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040608", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.77, "pe_ttm": 44.7395, "pb": 0.8529, "dv_ttm": 0.4878, "total_mv": 637674.7311, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 22.9, 11.6, 10.8, 9.6, 9.6], "rev_series": [139.8, 162.8, 183.6, 186.9, 189.3, 191.6], "np_series": [8.3, 17.1, 2.3, 1.8, 1.8, 1.6], "roe_series": [14.7, 25.5, 3.3, 2.8, 2.6, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 190.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 27.4, "fcf_ttm": 22.8, "fcf_yield": 35.8, "ocf_yield": 42.9, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.53, "gm_chg_2022": -5.4, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.6, "fix_assets": 127.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.85, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 99.9, "debt_ebitda": 7.5, "debt_ratio": 69.8, "debt_mv": 156.6, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.4, "np_cagr3": -12.0, "rev_yoy": -1.2, "np_yoy": -14.4, "np_vol": 61.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 20.7, "fwd_pe2": 13.7, "fwd_g1": 116.0, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 0.4, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["白卡纸", 30.0], ["文化纸", 12.0], ["箱板纸", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.2, "ret_prev2_year": -16.7, "ret_ytd": -29.9, "ret_pivot": 27.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.6, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": -43.7, "ret_250": -8.4, "mdd_250": -48.9, "vol_250": 41.8, "pos_52w": 55.0}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 28, "hard": 83, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 53%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 35.8%(经营现金流/市值 42.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 53%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -8% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "博汇纸业:PE 比行业中位高 23.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点。"]}}