{"F": {"ts_code": "600965.SH", "name": "*ST福成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "其他养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.91, "pe_ttm": 60.2345, "pb": 1.0845, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 238241.991, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.4, 32.7, 31.2, 37.7, 25.4, 22.0], "rev_series": [10.9, 12.7, 10.7, 10.5, 10.2, 11.6], "np_series": [1.2, 1.5, 1.1, 1.0, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [5.9, 7.3, 5.2, 4.6, 2.4, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.3, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 16.7, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 50.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.7, "np_cagr3": -19.7, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": -48.9, "np_vol": 26.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["畜牧养殖及食品加工", 33.0], ["殡葬服务业", 6.0], ["墓位销售、管理、殡葬服务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.0, "ret_prev2_year": -30.2, "ret_ytd": -51.1, "ret_pivot": -13.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.2, "ret_60": 8.6, "ret_120": -51.2, "ret_250": -44.8, "mdd_250": -62.8, "vol_250": 46.3, "pos_52w": 45.0}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 51, "hard": 52, "bondness": 36}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 60.2 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 9% / -51%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "*ST福成:PE 比行业中位高 20.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.9个百分点。"]}}