{"F": {"ts_code": "600963.SH", "name": "岳阳林纸", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "大宗用纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040525", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.43, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.7924, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 602845.7897, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.0, 15.1, 15.4, 8.5, 13.1, 10.5], "rev_series": [71.2, 78.4, 97.8, 86.4, 81.3, 86.7], "np_series": [4.1, 3.0, 6.2, -2.4, 1.7, -2.3], "roe_series": [4.9, 3.4, 6.9, -2.7, 2.0, -3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 81.4, "np_ttm": -3.9, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 13.1, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.0, "fix_assets": 84.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.79, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 70.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.1, "debt_ratio": 62.0, "debt_mv": 117.3, "payout": 67.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.7, "np_yoy": -106.8, "np_vol": 137.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["印刷纸", 18.0], ["印刷用纸", 18.0], ["商品浆", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.5, "ret_prev2_year": -13.8, "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_pivot": -13.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -38.4, "ret_250": -30.8, "mdd_250": -55.1, "vol_250": 35.4, "pos_52w": 52.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 67, "bondness": 58}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.1%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -2% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "岳阳林纸:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.9个百分点。"]}}