{"F": {"ts_code": "600961.SH", "name": "株冶集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20040830", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.37, "pe_ttm": 10.9407, "pb": 4.6445, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2721878.0399, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.3, 4.7, 4.2, 8.5, 8.8, 11.6], "rev_series": [147.7, 164.7, 156.8, 194.1, 197.6, 222.5], "np_series": [1.6, 1.6, 0.6, 6.1, 7.9, 11.3], "roe_series": [161.3, 88.3, 25.1, 31.7, 19.7, 24.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 259.9, "np_ttm": 24.9, "ocf_ttm": 30.2, "fcf_ttm": 28.3, "fcf_yield": 10.4, "ocf_yield": 11.1, "gm_median": 8.5, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 25.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 44.0, "fix_assets": 40.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.64, "capex_dep": 0.7, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 34.0, "debt_mv": 2.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 12.4, "np_cagr3": 171.5, "rev_yoy": 35.9, "np_yoy": 232.7, "np_vol": 38.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锌及锌合金", 28.0], ["锌产品", 28.0], ["银锭", 15.0], ["金锭", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 104.6, "ret_prev2_year": -5.9, "ret_ytd": 57.6, "ret_pivot": 257.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.7, "ret_60": 9.8, "ret_120": 25.6, "ret_250": 90.9, "mdd_250": -39.7, "vol_250": 66.3, "pos_52w": 71.0}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 70, "hard": 70, "bondness": 8}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 40 亿,占总资产 44%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铅锌 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 10.4%,股息率 —,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 54%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 44%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.4%(经营现金流/市值 11.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.5%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.9 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 91%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / 10% / 26%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "株冶集团:PE 比行业中位低 9.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.5个百分点。"]}}