{"F": {"ts_code": "600959.SH", "name": "江苏有线", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "电视广播Ⅱ", "sw3": "电视广播Ⅲ", "ind": "电视广播Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150428", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.14, "pe_ttm": 98.3054, "pb": 0.6947, "dv_ttm": 0.5096, "total_mv": 1570225.3578, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.1, 29.0, 27.3, 24.1, 24.7, 22.2], "rev_series": [73.4, 74.6, 75.1, 76.0, 79.8, 79.9], "np_series": [1.7, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.7, 2.6], "roe_series": [0.8, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.6, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 75.0, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 9.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 24.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 5.4, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.6, "fix_assets": 186.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.69, "capex_dep": 0.8, "interest_debt": 41.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 34.6, "debt_mv": 26.5, "payout": 31.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.1, "np_cagr3": -7.5, "rev_yoy": -11.9, "np_yoy": -48.7, "np_vol": 38.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["收视维护费", 12.0], ["数据业务服务", 9.0], ["工程结算", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.4, "ret_prev2_year": 7.5, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 15.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": -0.4, "ret_120": -21.6, "ret_250": -17.0, "mdd_250": -37.8, "vol_250": 31.7, "pos_52w": 67.9}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 53, "hard": 83, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 98.3 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%、固定资产占比 52%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 0.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 98.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -0% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电视广播Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 38.2 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 24.7% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 62%。", "江苏有线:PE 比行业中位高 60.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.1个百分点。"]}}