{"F": {"ts_code": "600956.SH", "name": "新天绿能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.15, "pe_ttm": 18.9803, "pb": 1.3185, "dv_ttm": 2.7972, "total_mv": 3217691.2432, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.3, 29.7, 28.2, 25.0, 19.7, 20.8], "rev_series": [125.1, 159.9, 185.6, 202.8, 213.7, 198.3], "np_series": [15.1, 21.6, 22.9, 22.1, 16.7, 18.3], "roe_series": [12.1, 13.2, 11.4, 10.4, 7.7, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 181.4, "np_ttm": 17.0, "ocf_ttm": 72.6, "fcf_ttm": -27.0, "fcf_yield": -8.4, "ocf_yield": 22.6, "gm_median": 25.0, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 13.5, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 71.5, "fix_assets": 680.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 3.29, "interest_debt": 488.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.4, "debt_ratio": 66.4, "debt_mv": 151.9, "payout": 52.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -7.3, "rev_yoy": -15.5, "np_yoy": -9.3, "np_vol": 22.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["天然气销售收入", 24.0], ["天然气", 24.0], ["风力/光伏发电收入", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.1, "ret_prev2_year": -5.0, "ret_ytd": 1.4, "ret_pivot": 13.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": -6.7, "ret_120": -23.9, "ret_250": -7.7, "mdd_250": -37.6, "vol_250": 38.6, "pos_52w": 68.0}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 50, "hard": 100, "bondness": 68}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 22个百分点,营收 3 年复合 2.2%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 52%、股息率 2.8%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 489 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 7.4 倍,资产负债率 66%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 2.8% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 19.0 倍 倒过来就是 5.3% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 72%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.4%(经营现金流/市值 22.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 72%,资本开支/折旧 3.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.0 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -7% / -24%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "新天绿能:PE 比行业中位低 8.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.8个百分点。"]}}