{"F": {"ts_code": "600955.SH", "name": "维远股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.69, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9239, "dv_ttm": 0.3915, "total_mv": 697950.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 31.0, 10.3, 3.3, 1.6, -1.5], "rev_series": [43.9, 96.3, 78.0, 70.5, 95.2, 87.7], "np_series": [7.2, 21.5, 6.1, 1.0, 0.6, -9.9], "roe_series": [38.5, 41.1, 7.2, 1.1, 0.7, -12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 97.7, "np_ttm": -8.5, "ocf_ttm": 9.5, "fcf_ttm": 7.1, "fcf_yield": 10.1, "ocf_yield": 13.6, "gm_median": 3.3, "gm_std": 11.7, "gm_stab": -2.54, "gm_chg_2022": -15.3, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 84.1, "fix_assets": 94.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.92, "capex_dep": 0.24, "interest_debt": 25.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 32.4, "debt_mv": 36.1, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.8, "np_yoy": 86.6, "np_vol": 748.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 7.3, "fwd_pe2": 7.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 2.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["酚酮相关产品", 32.0], ["新能源新材料相关产品", 22.0], ["新材料新能源相关产品", 22.0], ["专用化学品", 21.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.3, "ret_prev2_year": -14.7, "ret_ytd": -21.4, "ret_pivot": 3.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -16.5, "ret_120": -32.2, "ret_250": -13.4, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 46.0, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 100, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 84%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 84%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.3%,稳定度 -254%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.1%(经营现金流/市值 13.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.3%,稳定度 -254%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 84%,资本开支/折旧 0.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -16% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "维远股份:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 36.7个百分点。"]}}