{"F": {"ts_code": "600941.SH", "name": "中国移动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "电信运营商", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 100.3, "pe_ttm": 16.5076, "pb": 1.5305, "dv_ttm": 2.1946, "total_mv": 217560105.131, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.6, 28.8, 27.8, 28.2, 29.0, 28.9], "rev_series": [7680.7, 8482.6, 9372.6, 10093.1, 10407.6, 10501.9], "np_series": [1078.4, 1159.4, 1254.6, 1317.7, 1383.7, 1371.0], "roe_series": [9.9, 10.1, 10.3, 10.3, 10.4, 10.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10444.5, "np_ttm": 1317.9, "ocf_ttm": 2639.4, "fcf_ttm": 1162.4, "fcf_yield": 5.3, "ocf_yield": 12.1, "gm_median": 28.8, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 7445.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 988.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 32.8, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 72.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.9, "np_cagr3": 3.0, "rev_yoy": -1.1, "np_yoy": -6.3, "np_vol": 3.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.1, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 16.0, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 5.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["无线上网业务", 22.0], ["应用及信息服务", 19.0], ["信息技术应用及服务", 19.0], ["其他业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.1, "ret_prev2_year": 26.4, "ret_ytd": 1.5, "ret_pivot": 6.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": 4.8, "ret_250": -4.8, "mdd_250": -19.3, "vol_250": 15.5, "pos_52w": 93.9}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 54, "hard": 56, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.5 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%、固定资产占比 35%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%,稳定度 98%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.3%(经营现金流/市值 12.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.5 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -19%,年化波动 16%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 4% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "中国移动:PE 比行业中位低 65.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.0个百分点。"]}}