{"F": {"ts_code": "600938.SH", "name": "中国海油", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油气开采Ⅱ", "sw3": "油气开采Ⅲ", "ind": "油气开采Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20220421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.41, "pe_ttm": 11.4765, "pb": 1.855, "dv_ttm": 3.4269, "total_mv": 158797576.314, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.3, 50.6, 53.1, 49.9, 53.6, 51.5], "rev_series": [1553.7, 2461.1, 4222.3, 4166.1, 4205.1, 3982.2], "np_series": [249.6, 703.2, 1417.0, 1238.4, 1379.4, 1220.8], "roe_series": [5.7, 15.4, 26.3, 19.6, 19.5, 15.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4332.7, "np_ttm": 1383.7, "ocf_ttm": 2414.9, "fcf_ttm": 1288.0, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 15.2, "gm_median": 51.5, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 15.7, "npm_median": 30.7, "roe_median": 19.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 0.5, "fix_assets": 63.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 1.85, "capex_dep": 1.42, "interest_debt": 680.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 28.6, "debt_mv": 4.3, "payout": 44.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": -4.8, "rev_yoy": 16.9, "np_yoy": 23.4, "np_vol": 76.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 56.0, "earn_yield": 8.7, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 9.8, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": -2.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["油气销售", 42.0], ["贸易", 6.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.0, "ret_prev2_year": 54.7, "ret_ytd": 12.5, "ret_pivot": 35.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.6, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -19.5, "ret_250": 34.5, "mdd_250": -38.8, "vol_250": 38.8, "pos_52w": 77.8}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 70, "hard": 1, "bondness": 57}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 0%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 51.5%,稳定度 97%、ROE 近 5 年中位 19.5%。", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%,分红率 44%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.5%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 15.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.5%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 15.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 1.42 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.5 倍 粗算,约 56%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 34%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 0% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油气开采Ⅱ」4 家中位:PE 30.0 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 50.5% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 29%。", "中国海油:PE 比行业中位低 18.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}