{"F": {"ts_code": "600935.SH", "name": "华塑股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "氯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20211126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.32, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4184, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 833979.216, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.0, 25.8, 17.0, 11.5, 6.1, 11.0], "rev_series": [50.8, 67.4, 67.4, 55.6, 51.1, 46.6], "np_series": [6.1, 7.9, 4.2, 0.3, -4.3, -1.5], "roe_series": [16.1, 15.0, 6.6, 0.5, -7.0, -2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.4, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 5.5, "gm_median": 11.5, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.42, "gm_chg_2022": -12.0, "npm_median": 0.5, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 81.1, "fix_assets": 75.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.42, "capex_dep": 0.34, "interest_debt": 8.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 36.9, "debt_mv": 9.6, "payout": 34.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -11.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.0, "np_yoy": 40.6, "np_vol": 606.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["PVC", 27.0], ["烧碱", 11.0], ["灰岩", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.8, "ret_prev2_year": -25.2, "ret_ytd": -5.3, "ret_pivot": 12.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": 0.4, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -33.5, "vol_250": 34.4, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 24, "hard": 100, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 81%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 81%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 42%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 5.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 42%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 81%,资本开支/折旧 0.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 0% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "华塑股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 33.7个百分点。"]}}